“Labour Would Win Election by 16,000 Votes if Held Tomorrow”, Survey by Statistician Vincent Marmarà Shows

A recent survey conducted by statistician Professor Vincent Marmarà indicates that if a general election were held tomorrow, the Labour Party (PL) would secure a majority, with a projected lead of approximately 15,800 votes. The study highlights a significant portion of the electorate—22%—remains undecided, underscoring the potential impact of this group on future election outcomes. The latest numbers were revealed by Marmarà on Ricky Caruana’s podcast.

Key findings from the survey include:

Voting Intentions:

38.5% of respondents expressed support for the PL, while 34.8% favoured the Nationalist Party (PN). A notable 21.8% were uncertain about their voting preference.

Voter Retention:

Among those who voted for the PL in the 2022 general election, 72.2% intend to vote for the party again, 1.5% have shifted their support to the PN, 12.1% are undecided, and 12.9% plan to abstain.

For 2022 PN voters, 80.5% plan to remain loyal, 0.4% have switched to the PL, 11.9% are undecided, and 6.2% intend to abstain.

Leader Trust Ratings: Labour leader Robert Abela holds a 13.2% higher trust rating compared to Nationalist leader Bernard Grech.

The survey also notes minimal voter migration between the two main parties. However, a substantial number of respondents, particularly from the Labour camp, indicated a likelihood of abstaining from voting. When applying scientific models, the data suggests that the PL would achieve an absolute majority of 50.1%, with the PN obtaining 44.2%, the ADPD 3.0%, and other parties 2.7%.

#MaltaDaily