The final poll of the 2022 general election is forecasting a 39,000 vote win difference for Labour, despite there being a record drop in voter turnout.
The poll was carried out by statistician Vincent Marmara for L-Orizzont, forecasting a 55.9% vote for Robert Abela’s Labour Party, contrasted to Bernard Grech’s 42.8%. He surveyed 1,800 respondents between March 18 and 23, with a 95% confidence interval and 2.3% margin of error.
This aligns quite closely to other surveys commissioned by other news platforms, with Times of Malta forecasting last week that Labour is set to emerge victorious at 55.1% and the PN at 43.5%.
Should these calculations prove correct, it would signify a third consecutive record victory for PL as it improves its vote count by 0.9% and a decline of 0.9% for the PN from the 2017 election.
The poll by Marmara is also indicating an 88% turnout, a record low in local general elections as they had never seen a dip below the 90% mark. 3.8% of voters who supported Labour in 2017 will not be voting, with PN losing 2.7%.
Around 4.9% of respondents who voted PN in 2017 revealed they intend to vote Labour, whereas 1.4% of PL voters intend to switch to the Opposition. 13.9% of 2017 Nationalist voters are unsure of who to vote for, versus 8.1% of PL voters.
When it comes to third parties and independent candidates, the voting results are set to remain unchanged from 2017 – a mere 1.3%.
#MaltaDaily