Without Migration, Malta’s Population Could Fall From 574,000 To Just 252,000

What would Malta look like without immigration?

According to one Eurostat scenario analysed by the Central Bank, the answer is dramatic.

If Malta experienced no further migration after the start of the projection period, its population could fall from around 574,250 people in 2025 to just 252,000 by 2100.

That would represent a 56% decline.

By 2050 alone, Malta’s population under the no-migration scenario would fall to around 530,000, compared with approximately 720,000 under the baseline projection.

Why such a huge difference?

Simply put: Malta is not having enough children to replace its population naturally.

The Central Bank says the scenario demonstrates that new births would be insufficient to maintain Malta’s current population level.

And the ageing effect would be just as significant.

Today, Malta has roughly 27 people aged 65+ for every 100 working-age people.

Without migration, that figure could eventually rise to 104 elderly people for every 100 people aged between 15 and 64 — meaning Malta could theoretically have more pension-age people than working-age residents by 2100.

It’s an extreme scenario, and the Central Bank makes clear that these projections are not predictions.

But it highlights one uncomfortable demographic reality:

Without migration, Malta’s population wouldn’t simply stop growing, but it could eventually shrink dramatically.

#MaltaDaily