VINCENT MARMARA SURVEY PUTS PL AHEAD OF PN BY AROUND 28,000 VOTES

A new survey conducted by Vincent Marmarà indicates that the Labour Party (PL) holds a significant lead over the Nationalist Party (PN), with a projected advantage of approximately 10.1 percentage points. This margin is estimated to translate into a lead of around 28,000 votes, assuming an 80% voter turnout in the upcoming election scheduled for May 30.

The survey, carried out between April 23 and 29 among a sample of 1,200 respondents, was conducted during a politically sensitive period, coinciding with the announcement of a snap election on April 27. The sample was weighted to reflect national demographics, including age, gender, and locality, and carries a confidence level of 95% with a margin of error of ±2.8%.

After adjusting for undecided voters using statistical modelling, the projected results show Labour securing 53.1% of the vote, compared to 43.1% for the PN. Smaller parties are expected to obtain a combined share of under 4%, with ADPD estimated at 2%.

The survey also highlights notable uncertainty among voters. Among Labour supporters, 7.8% remain undecided, while 6% say they may abstain. Uncertainty is higher among PN voters, with 11% still undecided, though only 2% indicate they may not vote.

Earlier polls had suggested a narrower gap, pointing to a widening lead for Labour in recent weeks. Raw data from the survey, prior to redistribution of undecided voters, showed Labour at 47.9%, PN at 36.9%, and 12.6% of respondents undecided.

#MaltaDaily