Marmara’s Latest Poll Shows Labour Lead Over Nationalists Rising to 30,000 Votes

Statistician Vincent Marmara’s latest survey for the 2026 General Election campaign indicates that the Labour Party has extended its lead, with projections now placing it around 30,000 votes ahead of the Nationalist Party.

The poll was conducted between May 14 and May 20 through telephone and mobile interviews, with a sample of 1,500 respondents aged 16 and over. It carries a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±2.5%. The sample was calibrated to reflect Malta’s demographics and voting patterns from the 2022 general election, while non-responses were addressed using the Multiple Imputation Technique.

When asked which party they would vote for in the next general election, 49.1% of respondents said Labour, 38.1% chose the Nationalist Party, while 3.2% opted for other parties. Another 9.6% remained undecided.

After applying Marmara’s statistical model to account for refusals and undecided voters, the projected result places Labour at 53.3%, the PN at 42.8%, and other parties at 3.9%.

Marmara noted that depending on how undecided voters eventually cast their ballots, the gap between the two main parties could vary between 9% and 12%. Factoring in different turnout scenarios, the projected vote difference ranges from 27,000 to 33,000 votes, averaging around 30,000 in Labour’s favour.

This marks a gradual increase from Marmara’s two previous polls, which showed Labour leads of 28,000 and 29,000 votes respectively.

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