Labour Would Win the Election by 28,000 Votes If Held Today, According to Marmara Survey

Taking to social media following the publication of his latest survey, statistician Vincent Marmara revealed that the Labour Party would currently hold a substantial advantage if a general election were held today, with a projected lead of 24,000 to 28,000 votes.

The November 2025 Survey was conducted between 13 and 20 November through telephone and mobile interviews with a representative sample of 1,200 respondents aged 16 and over. The survey carries a 95% confidence level and a margin of error of ±2.8%. The sample was calibrated to Malta’s demographic profile and to voting patterns from the 2022 general election. The Multiple Imputation method was used to address non-responses.

When asked how they would vote if the election were held tomorrow, 45.5% said Labour Party, 38.0% chose the Nationalist Party, 1.7% opted for ADPD, 2.0% selected other parties, and 12.7% remained undecided.

Applying his scientific model to those who declined to respond, Marmara projected the final result distribution as 52.3% for PL, 43.5% for PN, 2.0% for ADPD, and 2.2% for other parties.

Given the considerable share of undecided voters, scenario modelling places the gap between 8% and 10%. Assuming 83% valid votes, this translates to a lead of 24,000 to 28,000 votes.

Malta’s recent electoral history has featured significant vote margins between its two major parties. In the 2013 general election, Labour won by roughly 35,000 votes, with Joseph Muscat’s movement returning the party to power after a long period in opposition. In 2017, Labour secured re-election with a nearly identical margin of around 35,000 votes.

The 2022 election saw an even wider Labour victory under current Prime Minister Robert Abela, with a margin of approximately 39,000 votes.

Marmara’s latest findings offer a timely snapshot of Malta’s political climate, highlighting shifting dynamics as the country looks ahead to its next electoral cycle.

#MaltaDaily