A recent study conducted by the Health Metrics and Evaluation Unit in the United States, and published in The Lancet, indicates a global trend towards declining fertility rates, with Malta expected to experience a continued decrease in fertility until the year 2050. The comprehensive research, which examined data from 204 countries, predicts that nearly every population worldwide will see a decrease by the end of the century due to insufficient numbers of newborns to offset death rates.
This decline in global fertility, which is not expected to balance the rate of deaths until the year 2100, places Malta among the majority of nations unable to produce enough newborn children to support both deaths and population growth. The study reveals that 97% of countries will be affected by this trend, with the global fertility rate projected to fall from 2.23 births per woman in 2021 to 1.68 in 2050, and even further to 1.57 by 2100.
For population stability, developed countries require a fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman. However, Malta’s fertility rate was 1.53 in 2021, and the study projects a decline to 1.39 by 2050 and 1.26 by 2100, underscoring a significant challenge. Japan and South Korea are identified as having the lowest fertility rates, highlighting a global issue that extends far beyond Malta’s borders. This anticipated demographic shift necessitates careful planning and policy adjustments to mitigate its impacts.
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